Kel'el Ware Points - Player Prop Bet 4/18/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Kel'el Ware

C · Miami Heat

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Apr 18, 2025

Updated Apr 19, 2025 2:23 AM EST

Analysis

Kel'el Ware Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kel'el Ware has converted 60.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games on the road, 7.9% higher than he's converted overall this year without the home court advantage.
Kel'el Ware has played 27.5 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.3 more than he's played overall this year.
The matchup against Onyeka Okongwu is a positive one; he has allowed a massive 15.4 points per game while at home when facing opposing starting Cs this year (94th percentile).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA in their home city this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Miami Heat.
The faceoff with Onyeka Okongwu in regard to drawing fouls places in only the 88th percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a massive 3.5 free throws per game this year when they are on the road.

Favors Under

Kel'el Ware has accumulated 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games while playing on the road, 0.8 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the season on the road.
The 3rd-most lethargic pace team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kel'el Ware has sunk 64.1% of his free throw attempts while playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 19th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Kel'el Ware will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling generally lowers stat production in all stat categories.