Kel'el Ware Points - Player Prop Bet 3/27/2025

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Kel'el Ware

NBA · Player Props

Kel'el Ware

C · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 27, 2025

Updated Mar 28, 2025 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

Kel'el Ware Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kel'el Ware has converted 62.8% of his field goals over the last 15 games, 9.0% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.
Kel'el Ware has tallied 30.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 8.9 more than he's tallied over the course of the season.
As it relates to three-pointers, the Heat's excellent 44.1% rate of made threes with the home court advantage ranks best in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Onyeka Okongwu is a good one for treys; when Okongwu is on the road opposing starting Cs this year, they have converted a whopping 39.7% of their 3-point attempts (86th percentile).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to boost possessions for the Heat.

Favors Under

Kel'el Ware has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's tallied overall this year.
The slowest pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat.
The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kel'el Ware has successfully made 46.7% of his free throws over the last 15 games, 20.3% less than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

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