Kel'el Ware Points - Player Prop Bet 2/21/2025

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Kel'el Ware

NBA · Player Props

Kel'el Ware

C · Miami Heat

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Feb 21, 2025

Updated Feb 22, 2025 3:54 AM EST

Analysis

Kel'el Ware Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Kel'el Ware has attempted 10.3 field goals per game over the last 15 games, 3.6 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Kel'el Ware has averaged 28.8 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 9.7 higher than he's averaged in all games this year.
The Heat check in as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year in terms of treys.
Kel'el Ware has converted 89.3% of his free throw attempts over the last 15 games, 13.9% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
The matchup against Orlando Robinson is a favorable one for drawing fouls; when squaring off against opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a whopping 3.6 foul shots per game (90th percentile).

Favors Under

The number of three-point shots attempted against Orlando Robinson has been remarkably low (1.2 per game) when guarding other starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).
The 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat.
The Toronto Raptors have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games in their home stadium, which should lead to decreased plays for the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Kel'el Ware will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player performance across the board.

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