Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/1/2025

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat · Feb 1, 2025

Updated Feb 2, 2025 1:29 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has averaged 3.7 defensive boards per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 79th percentile -- among the NBA's leaders by this standard.
The 6th-quickest pace home offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Spurs.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court usually improves stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the 4th-slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the San Antonio Spurs.

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