Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/3/2025

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 3, 2025

Updated Jan 4, 2025 1:55 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has compiled 4.0 defensive boards per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league in this category: 81st percentile.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which should boost possessions for the Spurs.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 29.6 rate, Keldon Johnson's playing time has declined this year to 24.5 minutes per game.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson figures to suffer a reduction in production across the board as a result of playing on the visting team in this game.

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