Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has tallied 5.4 rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this standard: 84th percentile.
Keldon Johnson has played 28.4 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
The Spurs are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Houston Rockets).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson comes in at the 79th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a monstrous 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
While playing at home, the Houston Rockets have allowed the most offensive boards per game (13.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson figures to see a decline in effectiveness in all stat categories as a result of playing on the visting team in this contest.

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