Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 1:35 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-134/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has posted 4.2 defensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the NBA by this metric: 84th percentile.
The 2nd-fastest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Spurs.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson measures in the 77th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a whopping 2.2 fouls per game this year.
The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Spurs.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs rank 7thworst in in the NBA while on the road with just 9.9 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have nabbed 11.6 offensive rebounds per game (9th-highest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves (continuing possessions that can produce bonus chances for offense).
Keldon Johnson will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to reduce player performance in all stat categories.

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