Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 15, 2024 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-142/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has compiled 4.6 defensive rebounds per game this year on the road, placing him among the NBA's hottest by this metric in recent games: 87th percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson measures in the 82nd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 30.9 minutes per game when playing away from home this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games.
The San Antonio Spurs are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from competing against the 2nd-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Hawks).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has committed 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 0.8 higher than he's committed in all games this season on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Hawks have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson stands to see a decline in output in all facets of the game in light of playing away from home in this matchup.

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