Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/19/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Milwaukee Bucks vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 19, 2023

Updated Dec 20, 2023 12:39 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has averaged 1.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games, 0.6 higher than he's averaged in all games this year.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 31.5 minutes per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The 3rd-fastest pace team in the NBA this year has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs are expected to see an increase in opportunities today from facing the fastest pace home team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Milwaukee Bucks).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (78th percentile).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs grade out 7thworst in in the NBA with just 10.1 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 15 games when they are on the road, opposing teams have secured 12.7 offensive rebounds per game (highest in the league) vs. the Milwaukee Bucks (retaining possessions that can lead to extra opportunities for offense).
Keldon Johnson will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city tends to decrease stat production in all facets of the game.

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