Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/1/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 1, 2023

Updated Dec 2, 2023 12:10 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has posted an impressive 5.3 defensive rebounds per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 4.2 defensive rebounds per game last year.
Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson lands in the 75th percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 30.1 minutes per game while on the road this year.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The San Antonio Spurs will likely see a rise in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 5th-speediest pace-of-play away offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Pelicans).

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson slots into the 79th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a colossal 2.5 fouls per game while on the road this year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are playing at home, opposing teams have nabbed 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (5th-most in the NBA) against the Pelicans (retaining possessions that can generate bonus chances for offense).
Keldon Johnson should experience a decrease in effectiveness across the board on account of playing away from hom in this game.

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