Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/14/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs · Nov 14, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 10:52 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has put up a terrific 5.3 defensive boards per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 4.2 defensive boards per game last year.
The 3rd-most up-tempo pace-of-play road offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Spurs.
The Spurs will likely see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest pace away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 2.0 mark, Keldon Johnson's personal fouls per game have jumped this year to 2.9.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
This year, opposing teams have grabbed 14.7 offensive boards per game (most in the league) against the Thunder (lengthening possessions that can create additional opportunities for offense).
Keldon Johnson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally decreases player production for all stats.

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