Keldon Johnson Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Rebounds

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 16, 2023 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has averaged 6.1 rebounds per game this year, putting him in the company of the best players in the league by this metric: 89th percentile.
Keldon Johnson has played 30.1 minutes per game on his home court this year, putting him in the 78th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
While playing away from home, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has tallied 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's tallied overall this season.
The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Spurs.

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