Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 15, 2024

Updated Mar 16, 2024 12:34 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 12.9 shots from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Keldon Johnson has converted 3.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this year.
Keldon Johnson has played 29.6 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 79th percentile.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league this year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Spurs rank as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home stadium, which ought to reduce plays for the Spurs.
Compared to last season's 5.2 mark, Keldon Johnson's number of foul shots has fallen this season to 3.2 foul shots per game.

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