Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 3:02 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has converted 2.6 treys per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's converted from three overall this year.
Out of all players in the league, Keldon Johnson comes in at the 75th percentile for playing time, averaging a massive 28.6 minutes per game when playing on the road this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 9th-speediest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which should raise possessions for the Spurs.
The Kings have allowed the least offensive boards per game (8.9) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has attempted just 12.8 field goals per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 17.7 rate last year.
This matchup is a strong one for 3-pointers; opposing squads have posted the highest three rate in the league this year (39.4%).
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road generally worsens player production in all facets of the game.

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