Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/5/2024

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 5, 2024

Updated Mar 6, 2024 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has played 28.4 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 75th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
In regard to scoring, the Spurs's stellar 116.2 points per game comes in as the 7th-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year, their opposition has shot 34.6% on three-pointers (2nd-weakest in the league) vs. the Rockets, labeling this as a difficult matchup.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games as the road team.
The Spurs are expected to see an increase in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Houston Rockets).

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 17.7 rate, Keldon Johnson's shots taken have regressed this season to 12.8 per game.
Out of all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson comes in at the 79th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a monstrous 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
While playing at home, the Houston Rockets have allowed the most offensive boards per game (13.6) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, opposing squads have attempted 25.3 foul shots per game (most in the league) against the Houston Rockets, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.