Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/23/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 23, 2024

Updated Feb 24, 2024 3:18 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson places in the 76th percentile for playing time, posting a massive 29.0 minutes per game away from his home court this year.
This matchup is a tough one for field goals; when the Los Angeles Lakers are on their home court, opposing clubs have posted the 5th-lowest field goal percentage in the league against them this year (45.8%).
The 3rd-speediest pace team in the NBA this year has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs will likely get a boost in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 2nd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has notched a lowly 16.1 points per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 22.0 points per game last year.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league (79th percentile).
As it relates to scoring, the Spurs's subpar 108.0 points per game comes in as the 3rd-weakest in the league over the last 10 games.
Over the last 10 games, opposing squads have snagged 13.4 offensive boards per game (highest in the league) vs. the Lakers (saving possessions that can create additional chances for offense).
Keldon Johnson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to lower player production in all stat categories.