Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 1:23 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has averaged 29.3 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 77th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the league.
The matchup vs. the Dallas Mavericks is a tough one for 3-pointers; their opposition has tallied the 9th-least threes per game in the NBA over the last 5 games (11.6).
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Spurs will likely see a rise in opportunities today from being pitted against the most up-tempo pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Over the last 5 games, the other team has attempted 16.4 free throws per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 17.7 mark, Keldon Johnson's shots from the field have decreased this year to 13.1 per game.
Keldon Johnson has attempted a measly 5.1 3-pointers per game this year, quite a bit less than his 6.5 rate last year.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 2.3 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-prone players in the league (79th percentile).
The Spurs check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (11.4) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).