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Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson Points
Player Prop - 2/7/2024

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Keldon Johnson measures in the 77th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc without the home court advantage, averaging 4.6 per game this year.

Keldon Johnson has tallied 29.7 minutes per game while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.

The Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 20 games away from their home court.

The San Antonio Spurs have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

This year when they are the visiting team, the other team has snagged 9.0 offensive boards per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat (shortening possessions that could otherwise generate added opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In contrast to last year's 17.7 clip, Keldon Johnson's field goal attempts have tailed off this year to 13.3 per game.

As it relates to threes, the San Antonio Spurs's poor 34.2% rate of made threes ranks worst in the league this year.

This matchup is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; opposing clubs have averaged the most three attempts per game in the league over the last 20 games when the Heat have the home court advantage (38.3).

Keldon Johnson will likely experience a decrease in performance in all facets of the game considering playing away from home in this matchup.

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