Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 20, 2024

Updated Jan 21, 2024 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has been on the court for 30.2 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 79th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
As it relates to three-point attempts, the 8th-most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Spurs.
The 2nd-quickest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Spurs.
The Wizards have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA this year, which ought to increase plays for the San Antonio Spurs.
Keldon Johnson has converted 3.9 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has attempted a mere 13.5 field goals per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 17.7 rate last year.
Keldon Johnson has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league (82nd percentile).
The Spurs have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Washington Wizards have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (13.0) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are away from home, opposing teams have attempted 25.6 free throws per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Wizards, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.