Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2024

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 15, 2024

Updated Jan 15, 2024 7:53 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson lands in the 83rd percentile for shots taken when playing away from home, averaging 12.7 per game this year.
Keldon Johnson has converted 46.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games, 12.7% higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
With respect to three-point attempts, the 7th-most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games.
The San Antonio Spurs are expected to see a rise in opportunities today from competing against the 2nd-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Hawks).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has committed 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 0.8 higher than he's committed in all games this season on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Hawks have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.5) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the charity stripe; their opposition has attempted a whopping 23.5 free throws per game over the last 20 games (10th-most in the league).
Keldon Johnson stands to see a decline in output in all facets of the game in light of playing away from home in this matchup.