Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/13/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Chicago Bulls · Jan 13, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 5.6 three-pointers per game this year, ranking in the 86th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Out of all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson places in the 84th percentile for playing time, compiling a colossal 31.9 minutes per game this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 4th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games while at home in terms of shot attempts from beyond the arc.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has totaled 84.7 shot attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Chicago Bulls, making this a difficult matchup.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court.

Favors Under

The Bulls have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should reduce opportunities for the Spurs.
The Spurs rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, their opposition has grabbed 12.2 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) against the Bulls (continuing possessions that can lead to extra chances for offense).
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; when the Chicago Bulls are on the road, the other team has attempted a monstrous 24.7 foul shots per game over the last 15 games (9th-most in the NBA).

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