Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/7/2024

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 7, 2024

Updated Jan 7, 2024 5:19 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 16.4 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.
Keldon Johnson has played 31.2 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, putting him in the 81st percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The Spurs have been the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games with respect to three-point attempts.
The most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The Cavaliers have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.9) in the league to the other team over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Keldon Johnson places in the 83rd percentile for personal fouls, logging an enormous 2.5 fouls per game this year.
The Spurs will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions today from facing the 7th-least up-tempo pace home team in the league this year (the Cleveland Cavaliers).
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games, opposing squads have attempted 23.9 foul shots per game (10th-most in the NBA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.
Keldon Johnson will likely suffer a drop-off in effectiveness for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this matchup.