Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 29, 2023

Updated Dec 30, 2023 3:13 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has played 31.1 minutes per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league.
The Spurs check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 20 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing clubs have brought down 10.1 offensive boards per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (losing possessions that could otherwise produce added chances for offense).
Keldon Johnson has attempted 5.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted in all games this year.

Favors Under

In contrast to last year's 22.0 rate, Keldon Johnson's points per game have regressed this year to 17.2.
Keldon Johnson has attempted and missed 4.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's missed from three overall this year on the road.
Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have tallied 120.7 points per game (9th-highest in the league) against the Portland Trail Blazers, branding this as a favorable matchup for offensive output.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league over the last 20 games, which should decrease plays for the Spurs.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).