Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/15/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Los Angeles Lakers · Dec 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 12:38 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last season's 8.7 rate, Keldon Johnson's field goals converted have risen this season to 7.4 per game.
In contrast to last season's 2.3 clip, Keldon Johnson's threes made have surged this season to 2.8 per game.
Keldon Johnson has played 32.7 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 86th percentile.
The matchup vs. Los Angeles is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; when the Lakers are the visiting team, the other team's starting PFs have averaged the 30th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (5.5).
The 3rd-fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the San Antonio Spurs.

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds continue possession and create bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the San Antonio Spurs rank 7thworst in in the league when playing at home with just 9.9 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
While playing at home, the Lakers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson has attempted just 3.2 foul shots per game this season, significantly lower than his 5.2 mark last season.
This year when they are at home, opposing starting PFs have attempted 3.2 free throws per game (9th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Lakers, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

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