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Keldon Johnson

Keldon Johnson Points
Player Prop - 12/11/2023

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Compared to last season's 4.3 clip, Keldon Johnson's off-target 3-point shots have tailed off this season to 3.5 per game.

Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson slots into the 77th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 30.6 minutes per game when playing on the road this year.

The San Antonio Spurs have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.

The 2nd-most up-tempo tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Spurs.

This year when they are at home, opposing clubs have come down with 9.7 offensive rebounds per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) against the Rockets (turning over possessions that could otherwise bring about added chances for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Keldon Johnson has successfully made a measly 6.3 baskets per game this year, significantly lower than his 8.0 rate last year.

This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 22.6% on 3-pointers (15th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, branding this as a hard matchup.

The San Antonio Spurs will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play visiting offense in the league this year (the Houston Rockets).

The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Keldon Johnson has attempted a lowly 3.1 free throws per game this year, significantly lower than his 5.2 rate last year.

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