Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/30/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 30, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 8.7 rate, Keldon Johnson's field goals converted have jumped this year to 7.2 per game.
In comparison to last year's 6.8 rate, Keldon Johnson's shot attempts from downtown have jumped this year to 6.6 per game.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 32.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 83rd percentile.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage with respect to shot attempts from beyond the arc.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games on their home court.

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 1.0 threes per game (13th-lowest in the NBA) against the Atlanta Hawks, designating this as a hard matchup.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, their opposition has captured 12.1 offensive boards per game (4th-most in the NBA) vs. the Atlanta Hawks (lengthening possessions that can produce bonus chances for offense).
Relative to last year's 5.2 clip, Keldon Johnson's number of foul shots has dropped this year to 2.9 foul shots per game.
The matchup vs. Atlanta is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.0 foul shots per game this year when the Hawks are playing at home (11th-least in the NBA).