Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/26/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs · Nov 26, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:03 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 7.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
The 2nd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the San Antonio Spurs.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last season's 17.7 clip, Keldon Johnson's shots from the field have dropped this season to 13.9 per game.
Keldon Johnson has been called for 2.7 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Denver is a tough one for 3-point attempts; when the Denver Nuggets are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 13th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.6).
The San Antonio Spurs will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from competing against the 4th-least up-tempo pace team in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).

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