Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/24/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs · Nov 24, 2023

Updated Nov 25, 2023 3:13 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 8.4 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 2.5 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc.
The Spurs have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 15 games on their home court.

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has attempted a lowly 13.9 field goals per game this season, a significant dropoff from his 17.7 mark last season.
Keldon Johnson has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, placing him in the 80th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have totaled 3.3 3-point attempts per game (12th-lowest in the NBA) against the Warriors, branding this as a challenging matchup.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Spurs.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league with the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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