Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 12:30 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 8.7 clip, Keldon Johnson's shots from the field sunk have risen this year to 7.0 per game.
In comparison to last year's 33.0 mark, Keldon Johnson's playing time has spiked this year to 34.0 minutes per game.
In terms of scoring, the San Antonio Spurs's exceptional 49.3% field goal rate with the home court advantage comes in as the 9th-most in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. Miami is a positive one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Heat are the visiting team, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 27th-most three attempts per game in the NBA since the start of last season (5.5).
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA when playing on the road this year.

Favors Under

In comparison to last season's 6.5 mark, Keldon Johnson's shots from behind the three-point arc have fallen this season to 4.6 per game.
Relative to last year's 2.0 rate, Keldon Johnson's personal fouls per game have surged this year to 3.0.
The Spurs rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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