Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs San Antonio Spurs · Mar 21, 2023

Updated Mar 21, 2023 4:26 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Antonio Spurs have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing away from home.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Pelicans have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

This matchup is a strong one for attempts from downtown; when the Pelicans are at home, their opposition have averaged the 7th-most three attempts per game in the league against them this year (35.8).
The Pelicans have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce opportunities for the Spurs.
As a team, the San Antonio Spurs have been lousy at drawing fouls: 2nd-worst in the NBA this year, averaging a measly 21.1 foul shots per game.
This matchup may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted an enormous 28.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

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