Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 17, 2023

Updated Mar 17, 2023 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 17.8 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games, 4.2 higher than he's attempted overall this year.
Keldon Johnson has attempted 9.2 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 3.9 higher than he's attempted overall this season at home.
The matchup vs. Memphis is a strong one for three-pointers; when the Grizzlies are away from home, opposing starting SFs have compiled the 28th-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (40.2%).
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to increase possessions for the Spurs.

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's averaged in all games this year.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 5th-least aggressive offense in the league playing at home this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
The Grizzlies have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.4) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

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