Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 16, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 17.8 shots per game over the last 5 games, 4.2 more than he's attempted in all games this season.
Keldon Johnson has attempted 9.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games at home, 3.9 more than he's attempted over the course of the season at home.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
While playing away from home, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has tallied 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's tallied overall this season.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 4th-least aggressive offense in the NBA at home this year when it comes to attempts from downtown.
The matchup against the Mavericks is a hard one for scoring; the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 15th-lowest field goal percentage in the NBA this year (41.1%).
The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should decrease possessions for the Spurs.

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