Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/23/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 23, 2023

Updated Feb 24, 2023 1:57 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 17.8 shots per game over the last 5 games, 4.2 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Keldon Johnson has attempted 7.6 3-pointers per game over the last 15 games, 2.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games without the home court advantage.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson has attempted 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 2.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has committed 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 higher than he's committed in all games this season.
The matchup vs. Dallas is a tough one; when the Mavericks are playing at home, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SFs this year (11.1).
The Mavericks have played at the least up-tempo pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Spurs.
As a team, the San Antonio Spurs have been poor at drawing fouls when playing on the road: worst in the NBA this year with a measly 19.1 free throws per game.
The matchup against the Mavericks may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted just 2.0 free throws per game over the last 15 games (8th-least in the league).