Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/15/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 15, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 17.4 shots per game this season, a big improvement over his 13.6 rate last season.
Keldon Johnson has attempted 6.6 3-pointers per game this year, a big improvement over his 5.3 rate last year.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 31.2 minutes per game on the road this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup vs. Dennis Smith Jr. is a strong one for shots from the field; when Smith Jr. is at home fellow starting SGs this year, they have made a monstrous 50.3% of their field goals (100th percentile).
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games while on the road.
The matchup against Dennis Smith Jr. is a challenging one for drawing fouls; when Smith Jr. is playing at home and squaring off against fellow starting SGs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.2 free throws per game (8th percentile).
Keldon Johnson will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player production across the board.

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