Keldon Johnson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/3/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers · Feb 3, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has converted 11.0 field goals per game over the last 5 games at home, 2.4 more than he's made over the course of the year while at home.
Keldon Johnson has tallied 32.1 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 84th percentile.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 5th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 25 games.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The 76ers have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year.
The matchup against the 76ers is a challenging one; they have allowed the 9th-least points per game in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (118.4).
The matchup vs. the 76ers is a tough one for 3-pointers; the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 6th-least shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (1.6).
The 76ers have played at the 8th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Spurs.
Keldon Johnson has missed 1.2 free throws per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.8 mark last season.

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