Keldon Johnson Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Made 3 Point Shots

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:38 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 4.3 clip, Keldon Johnson's off-target 3-point shots have tailed off this season to 3.5 per game.
Among all players in the league, Keldon Johnson slots into the 77th percentile for playing time, totaling a whopping 30.6 minutes per game when playing on the road this year.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 10 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.
The 2nd-most up-tempo tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Spurs.
This year when they are at home, opposing clubs have come down with 9.7 offensive rebounds per game (5th-lowest in the NBA) against the Rockets (turning over possessions that could otherwise bring about added chances for offense).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has averaged 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the most foul-prone players in the league (81st percentile).
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 22.6% on 3-pointers (15th-worst in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, branding this as a hard matchup.
The San Antonio Spurs will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play visiting offense in the league this year (the Houston Rockets).
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player production in all stat categories.