Keldon Johnson Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 10/25/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Made 3 Point Shots

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks · Oct 25, 2023

Updated Oct 25, 2023 9:52 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has attempted 6.5 three-pointers per game this season, significantly more than his 5.3 rate last season.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 32.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 87th percentile.
The speediest pace team in the league this year has been the Spurs.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which should lead to increased plays for the {OPP_TEAM}.
The San Antonio Spurs have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 39.3% rate, Keldon Johnson's 3-point effectiveness has tailed off this year to 30.6%.
In terms of shots from downtown, the San Antonio Spurs's feeble 34.7% rate of successful threes while on their home court ranks 6th-fewest in the league this year.
The matchup against Dallas is a tough one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when the Dallas Mavericks are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 8th-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (4.6).
On their home court, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (13.1) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

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