Keldon Johnson Assists - Player Prop Bet 1/2/2024

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Assists

Memphis Grizzlies vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 2, 2024

Updated Jan 3, 2024 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has averaged 3.3 assists per game this year on the road, placing him among the NBA's leaders by this standard in recent games: 81st percentile.
Keldon Johnson has played 31.2 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
The San Antonio Spurs will likely see a spike in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 5th-quickest pace team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Grizzlies).
This year when they are on the road, their opposition has collected 9.6 offensive boards per game (3rd-lowest in the league) against the Grizzlies (reducing possessions that could otherwise lead to bonus chances for offense).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Keldon Johnson slots into the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, logging an enormous 2.5 fouls per game this year.
The Spurs check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keldon Johnson ought to see a decline in effectiveness for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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