Keldon Johnson Assists - Player Prop Bet 12/17/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Assists

San Antonio Spurs vs New Orleans Pelicans · Dec 17, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has compiled 5.6 assists per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.8 more than he's compiled over the course of the season at home.
Keldon Johnson has tallied 32.6 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 85th percentile.
The Spurs have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo in the league this year.
The Spurs are expected to see an increase in opportunities in this game from competing against the 7th-fastest tempo offense in the league over the last 25 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).
This year when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has come down with 9.1 offensive rebounds per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans (reducing possessions that could otherwise create bonus opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has accumulated 2.4 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, placing him in the 75th percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Spurs rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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