Keldon Johnson Assists - Player Prop Bet 11/30/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Assists

San Antonio Spurs vs Atlanta Hawks · Nov 30, 2023

Updated Dec 1, 2023 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has tallied 4.4 assists per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 86th percentile.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 32.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 83rd percentile.
The Spurs have played at the 2nd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games on their home court.
The San Antonio Spurs will likely see a rise in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Hawks).
Keldon Johnson figures to see a spike in performance in all stat categories due to enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, their opposition has captured 12.1 offensive boards per game (4th-most in the NBA) vs. the Atlanta Hawks (lengthening possessions that can produce bonus chances for offense).

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