Keldon Johnson Assists - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2023

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Keldon Johnson

NBA · Player Props

Keldon Johnson

F-G · San Antonio Spurs

Assists

Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs · Feb 28, 2023

Updated Feb 28, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Keldon Johnson Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-168/+136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keldon Johnson has put up 3.5 assists per game over the last 15 games, 1.4 more than he's put up in all games this year.
Keldon Johnson has averaged 31.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 85th percentile.
The San Antonio Spurs have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The San Antonio Spurs check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Jazz have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (5.8) in the league to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keldon Johnson has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's averaged overall this season.
The Jazz have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should decrease plays for the Spurs.
Keldon Johnson will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decreases player production across the board.

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