Keita Bates-Diop Points - Player Prop Bet 4/9/2023

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Keita Bates-Diop

NBA · Player Props

Keita Bates-Diop

F · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs · Apr 9, 2023

Updated Apr 9, 2023 7:44 PM EST

Analysis

Keita Bates-Diop Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keita Bates-Diop has sunk 61.1% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 9.7% more than he's converted over the course of the year.
Keita Bates-Diop has sunk 50.6% of his three-pointers over the last 15 games, 14.2% higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this year.
Keita Bates-Diop has been on the court for 27.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, 4.6 higher than he's been on the court for overall this year on the road.
Keita Bates-Diop has averaged 1.1 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 19th percentile -- among the NBA's least foul-prone.
The matchup against Dallas is a good one; when the Mavericks are at home, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PFs this year (20.1).

Favors Under

The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Spurs.
The Mavericks have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.3) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the San Antonio Spurs have been poor at getting to the foul line: 2nd-worst in the league this year, totaling a lowly 21.1 foul shot attempts per game.
Keita Bates-Diop will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road generally lowers player performance for all stats.

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