Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 4/13/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Phoenix Suns · Apr 13, 2025

Updated Apr 14, 2025 3:05 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has made 3.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.4 higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season at home.
Keegan Murray has played 34.4 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the NBA: 94th percentile.
In regard to offense, the Kings's terrific 115.8 points per game measures as the 9th-highest in the NBA this year.
Keegan Murray has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 14.5% higher than he's made over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. Phoenix may be a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a colossal 7.5 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Suns are away from home (2nd-most in the league).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray ranks in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a massive 2.5 fouls per game while playing at home this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PFs have tallied 0.9 three-pointers per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, creating a challenging matchup.
The 3rd-most lethargic pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.
The Phoenix Suns have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).