Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2025

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 29, 2025

Updated Mar 30, 2025 1:59 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has successfully made 3.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year.
Among all players in the league, Keegan Murray ranks in the 94th percentile for playing time, compiling an enormous 34.6 minutes per game this year.
The matchup vs. Orlando is a positive one for shots from the field; when the Magic are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have put up the 10th-highest field goal rate in the NBA this year (49.9%).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Sacramento Kings grade out 10th-best in in the league on the road with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 20 games.
Keegan Murray has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 16.1% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season without the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Keegan Murray registers in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a massive 2.5 fouls per game away from home this year.
In terms of three-pointers, the Kings's unimpressive 33.5% rate of drained threes while playing away from home settles in as the 3rd-weakest in the league this year.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road.
The Kings will likely suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from facing the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year (the Magic).
Keegan Murray will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling tends to lower stat production in all facets of the game.