Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2025

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 13, 2025

Updated Mar 14, 2025 1:54 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has been on the court for 34.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 94th percentile.
The matchup against Golden State is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Warriors are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have averaged the 2nd-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (15.8).
The Kings check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games while on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 15.4% higher than he's converted in all games this year.

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has attempted a mere 10.8 shots from the field per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 12.8 mark last year.
Keegan Murray has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (91st percentile).
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road.
In regard to getting to the free-throw line, the Sacramento Kings's feeble 20.2 foul shots per game while on the road ranks 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (9th-fewest in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, making it tough to draw fouls.

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