Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/6/2025

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat · Jan 6, 2025

Updated Jan 7, 2025 4:00 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray comes in at the 78th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc while playing at home, tallying 5.2 per game this year.
Keegan Murray has tallied 35.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 94th percentile.
The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for three-pointers; the other team's starting PFs have compiled the 2nd-highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (43.4%).
The 9th-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has accumulated 2.9 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (96th percentile).
With respect to 3-point attempts, the 5th-least aggressive team in the league when playing at home this year has been the Sacramento Kings.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Sacramento Kings.
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Heat, struggling to get to the free-throw line.

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