Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 1/5/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 5, 2025

Updated Jan 6, 2025 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has been on the court for 35.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 96th percentile.
The matchup vs. Golden State is a favorable one for field goal attempts; when the Golden State Warriors are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have tallied the 2nd-most field goal attempts per game in the league this year (15.8).
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-speediest tempo in the league when playing on the road this year.
The Warriors have played at the 8th-speediest tempo in the league this year, which ought to lead to more plays for the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has scored a measly 11.6 points per game this year, a sizeable decrease from his 15.4 points per game last year.
Keegan Murray has averaged 2.9 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking in the 94th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
When it comes to 3-point shots, the Kings's unimpressive 30.5% rate of sunk threes while on the road comes in as the 2nd-lowest in the league this year.
This year when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 foul shots per game (9th-fewest in the league) against the Golden State Warriors, struggling to draw fouls.
Keegan Murray will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to lower stat production in all facets of the game.