Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings · Dec 28, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 2:50 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 5.5 shots from downtown per game this year, putting him in the 80th percentile among all players in the league.
Out of all players in the league, Keegan Murray comes in at the 96th percentile for playing time, tallying a whopping 35.6 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; opposing starting PFs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.6).
The 9th-speediest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Sacramento Kings.
The Kings have been the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has been called for 2.9 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
With respect to shots from downtown, the Sacramento Kings's unimpressive 30.7% rate of made threes while playing on the road comes in as the 2nd-weakest in the league this year.
The Sacramento Kings are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from facing the 8th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Lakers).
The matchup against the Lakers may be a tough one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.2 free throws per game over the last 15 games (least in the NBA).
Keegan Murray will likely suffer a drop-off in performance in all facets of the game in light of being on the road in this matchup.