Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings · Mar 1, 2024

Updated Mar 2, 2024 1:28 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Keegan Murray has attempted 12.3 field goals per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 9.7 mark last year.
Keegan Murray has been on the court for 32.2 minutes per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 86th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
The 10th-most up-tempo pace team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the road team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
Keegan Murray has successfully made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 19.1% higher than he's converted in all games this season.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray comes in at the 89th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a monstrous 2.7 fouls per game away from his home court this year.
When it comes to three-point shots, the Sacramento Kings's poor 33.9% rate of made threes without the home court advantage ranks 5th-fewest in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have put up 14.5 points per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, identifying this as a tough matchup for offensive output.
The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should lead to fewer plays for the Kings.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, opposing teams have nabbed 12.2 offensive boards per game (6th-most in the league) against the Timberwolves (continuing possessions that can bring about bonus opportunities for offense).