Keegan Murray Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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Keegan Murray

NBA · Player Props

Keegan Murray

F · Sacramento Kings

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Sacramento Kings · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Keegan Murray Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last season's 9.7 mark, Keegan Murray's shots have surged this season to 12.4 per game.
Among all players in the NBA, Keegan Murray rates in the 85th percentile for playing time, putting up an enormous 31.9 minutes per game on the road this year.
The Kings have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games on the road.
The 2nd-fastest pace away team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Sacramento Kings.
Keegan Murray has successfully made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 21.1% more than he's converted in all games this year.

Favors Under

Keegan Murray has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game away from home this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 3.7 3-point attempts per game (12th-fewest in the NBA) against the Nuggets, identifying this as a hard matchup.
The Kings are expected to see a decline in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the least up-tempo pace home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Kings grade out 5thworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
With the home court advantage, the Nuggets have given up the 7th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.1) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

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